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Update: Gold skated right up the slope to $1307 spot after failing to break recent lows in the early am.we want to be completely bullish, but reiterate our caveat from this morning:

It has worked it's way back up to $1294 over the rest of the evening and we may get a respite from further sell-offs today based on the double bottom left on the hourly. But the bias is still lower even if the market is short term oversold. 


We'd add that a move underneath overnight would likely encourage a pile on from momentum sellers again. As stated this morning:

The lack of solid pauses on the way down are actually encouraging should an event trigger a rally, as there should be little to stop gold from hitting a slippery slope higher up until $1307. A breach above that would give some more boost.

Geo-political issues were the catalyst it seems. If the market stabilizes here, there is room to move according to Michael Moor:

Gold is projected higher now, but I would be aware there is decent resistance on the way up at 13170-97 (basis Dec.) 


We see a bear flag that has been destroyed and potential for more slippage higher on fits and starts. Otherwise be wary of a thin market push back below $1307 spot. Be long here with a $1306 stop loss if we come in unchanged tomorrow would be our only trade on deck. 

Keep in mind that while gold is not the perfect hedge for any one risk, it is fast becoming  a catchall for many risks including inflation, uncertainty, and credit crunch related collapses. Its appeal broadens as risk becomes more complex. If Black Swans represent unthought of events, than in a world of man made prodicts purporting to hedge each micro risk known, gold has become truly black swan insurance. Specialization of risk mgt tools is over rated.  


Gold price spikes as North Korean foreign minister says Donald Trump has made a declaration of war

Via  Emma Haslett and City A.M.


Gold spiked this afternoon after the North Korean foreign minister said comments by Donald Trump last week in which he threatened to "totally destroy" North Korea were tantamount to a "declaration of war" against his country.

Ri Yong Ho said North Korea has the right to take countermeasures against the US, including shooting down US planes, even if they are not in its airspace. 

Gold futures jumped 0.5 per cent to $1,303.94 while the dollar fell 0.2 per cent against the yen to ¥111.76 after Ri's speech, at the UN in New York today.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 fell 0.5 per cent to 2,491 oints, while the Dow Jones fell by the same amount, to 22,250 points. 

Last week Trump said the US had "great strength and patience", but added: 

If it is forced to defend itself or its allies we will have no choice but to totally destroy North Korea.

That was followed by equally strong comments from Kim Jong Un, who said "a frightened dog barks louder". 

The mentally deranged behavior of the US President openly expressing on the UN arena the unethical will to "totally destroy" a sovereign state, beyond the boundary of threats of regime change or overturn of social system, makes even those with normal thinking faculty think about discretion and composure.


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