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Monday Outlook: Good Time To Buy The Gold & Silver Dip

Precious metals on sale Monday. Here’s the latest fundamental and technical analysis for the week ahead.

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Coming off the thread of nuclear Armageddon last week, it appears that everything is now fine and dandy. Last night we said that the dollar, gold, and silver were going to have to finish their lunch date, then go their separate ways. Go their separate ways they did. We knew either gold and silver were going to continue to break out, or they would break down. Overnight the metals faded lower all night after peaking around 11:00 p.m. EST. The silver price is fighting to hold $17 right now. The gold price traded as low as $1285. The dollar wouldn’t be called spectacular, but the dollar is around 93.35 right now. We will just have to see how things unfold throughout the day to get an indication of what the markets are thinking.

And it will be hard to come by the drivers today. We have some US treasury auctions, but not much technical market data until Tuesday when we get an across the board check-up on technical market vital signs. Tuesday we get:

  • Retail Sales
  • Empire State Mfg Survey
  • Import Export Prices
  • Business Inventories
  • Housing Market Index

On Wednesday, we get some more good technical data with Housing Starts and the EIA Petroleum Status Report. Thursday we get Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, and Industrial Production. Finishing off the week we get Consumer Sentiment and Baker-Hughes Rig Count.

Once again, the Fed will be looking to steer the markets just as we see what direction they are headed. Fed activity and any effects on the market pick up on Wednesday with the release of the FOMC minutes, then on Thursday we have a one-two punch of Kaplan and Kashkari speeches, and of friday Kaplan comes in as the closer for the final Fed speech that also includes Q & A from participants in Dallas, Texas.

This looks like one of those weeks where the Fed will be in the driver’s seat, and they even have a two-day market lead time before we see what condition they are in to drive. It was a sad weekend as events turned violent in Virginia, and tensions were through the roof last week. We’ll just have to see what the markets are thinking today.

If we want something from gold and silver, we want gold to make a run at $1300 this week. Unfortunately gold is starting from a lower spot, as it is having a hard time holding $1285 right now. Silver, well, let’s just try to hold $17.Silver will wake-up when it’s ready, but right now, that $16.90 to $17 range is crucial. We really need the 50-day to start turning up and making a run at crossing the 200-day, but that hurdle is a ways away, and if there is not a break-out coming off of a strong week like last week, we really want to just consolidate and hold here.

The dollar, gold and silver were all lined up and ready to bust the gates when the markets opened. Sunday afternoon, this is how they sat before the gate was opened:

 

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